Will the EU-Mercosur free trade deal ever be ratified?

Yes, because it is an ambitious and comprehensive trade agrement that represents a win-win for both sides.
69% (20 votes)
Yes, because the content of the agreement has been much watered down after decades of negotietions.
21% (6 votes)
No, because the agreement was rushed by a weak Argentinian leader in the eve of a contested election, which he lost.
0% (0 votes)
No, because the agreement was rushed by weak EU leaders in the context of Brexit.
10% (3 votes)
Total votes: 29

Comments

Let's be clear. Mercosur wants to sell agricultural goods to the EU, and German auto producers want to gain another market. This is the problem or the ”unknown” reason for this rush. After 20 years of negotiation, after two Argentinian defaults and still the sugar and cows problems, everything is forgotten for the sake of germans cars. Renault is already present in Brazil and Macron has a climate ”fight” with Bolsonaro. Frau Merkel is on the go but, before that, Germany needs some fresh air(money). Anyway, I think Mercosur's agricultural products do not comply with EU standards but is only my opinion.
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On the European Commission site it is presented the fact that the EU and Mercosur group agreed with this ambitious commercial trade. (the article where it's presented the 'agreement' - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/ro/IP_19_3396)I believe that the trade is in the benefit of both parts an give to the european citizens the possibility to access a various market of products and in the same time the members of the distributions countries can access jobs. I sustain the commercial involvement of this trade and the implications of two different region for the benefit of their citizens.
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After 20 years of negotiations, the European Union and a number of South American countries that are members of the MERCOSUR economic Union signed a free trade agreement in early July this year. MERCOSUR countries, as well as the United States, Ukraine and Russia, are among the largest global grain exporters. Therefore, the signing of the EU-MERCOSUR Pact means that our direct competitors have received economic carte Blanche and will very soon begin to squeeze the positions of Ukrainian traders in the world market. Note that if ratified, these agreements will be the largest free trade agreement in the world. Now the agreement between MERCOSUR and the European Union has yet to be ratified by all member States of the two associations. This process may last for another year or so.
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Thank you for such good analytics. This was very important to mention.
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I believe that it will be ratified, because the EU-Mercosur trade is an ambitious and comprehensive trade agrement that represents a win-win for both sides. Mercosur is made up of four member countries—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. And it can represent a good connexion between EU and South America.
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For the modern economy free trade is a crucial factor in the economic development of countries and whole regions. Free trade brings economic development and prosperity in theory. Similarly, economic theory claims that both parties will benefit from it. Unfortunately, in the real world, things are not so clear usually the different parties to the contract try to draw on all the positive effects, while insisting to keep a lot of preferences that they had before. In such circumstances it is difficult for the party to agree to the contract and not offend the interests of the stakeholder. In such circumstances, FTA negotiations turn into many other battles in which the very meaning of an agreement is often lost. It is difficult to say that it will be fully ratified and if it will, will it have the expected effect?
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It’s already been about two decades since the EU and Mercosur are trying to ratify a free trade agreement and as we all know they haven’t done it yet. Last year seemed to be a productive one for both parties because on the 28th of June, 2019 it was signed a temporary pact which is considered to be another step toward a final trade agreement. Shortly after this historic announcement, the Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, posted on social media that “In the midst of international trade tensions, we are sending a strong signal that we stand for rules-based trade.” (https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/28/world/mercosur-eu-trade-agreement-intl/index.html), a statement that supports the idea that the EU is a rules-based global economy. Even though this free trade deal has been seen as a win-win agreement, I believe that we should take a closer look at the people who are not on board. Many agricultural producers from France, Ireland, and Italy have a different opinion and most of them consider that this deal may have a negative impact on their national economy. Thanks to this bilateral agreement, 99.000 tones of beef will (https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2019/july/tradoc_158059.pdf) enter the EU’s market, but Ireland is concerned about these numbers. The latter exports around 300.000 tonnes to the UK, but due to Brexit, things may change and the beef imported from Mercosur may have a negative impact not only on Ireland’s economy but also on the EU’s market (it may become an oversupplied beef market). Moreover, the farmers are concerned about the goods’ production standards, another issue that has to be resolved. Let’s not forget about Amazon, which has played a major role in this trade deal. The members of the G7 raised money and they offered it to Brazil in order to reduce the fire in the Amazon rainforest. When Brazil’s president refused to accept the financial support, some leaders of the EU's member states took a step back and they came forward announcing that they won’t back up the deal (The Amazon Environmental Research Institute did some digging and some information came out - the fires may have been set intentionally in order to deforest a part of the Amazon - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49433767). On the other hand, regarding this event, Germany stated that such a response is not a correct one and if some members of the EU refuse to ratify the agreement due to this information, it won’t reduce the deforestation of the Amazon. Moreover, the timing of this deal is quite perfect. The US has a say as well, as Trump’s threats regarding the tariffs on cars and cheese have surfaced, the EU is creating a way to avoid this pressure focusing on entering into the South American markets (at the same time, some products such as cereal and beef, will be imported from Mercosur instead of bringing them from the US). https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/the-eu-and-mercosur-continue-to-negotiate-cross-atlantic-trade-deal. Therefore, I believe that this free trade deal between the EU and Mercosur won’t be ratified soon (although, Germany may hurry things up a bit due to its well-known economic interests). There are too many countries with different priorities, traditions, and perspectives and it’ll be quite difficult to bring them all on board. There are involved (indirectly) in this agreement not only the two parties - the EU and Mercosur - but also other great powers - China, the US.
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Well, in my opinion, it took them 2 decades to ratify this free trade deal so I think they won't get it done anytime soon. Of course, Germany need to open up its market for the carmakers and it will try to get everybody on board soon. At the same time, the four counries (Mercosur) would like to export their goods on the European market. We should keep in mind that the US plays an important role.
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The agreement, concluded in June 2018, after almost a decade of negotiations represents a win for both the EU and Mercosur, creating growth opportunities and jobs for both parties. The ratification of the agreement was, however, called into question by other Member States, before it was rejected in the Austrian parliament, amid concerns from farmers and NGOs in France, Ireland and Luxembourg about their meat production, and the fight against climate change. The agreement is to be ratified by the European Parliament and the Governments of the 28 EU Member States without a set timetable for the time being. From my point of view the agriculture and manufacture sector will be damaged in EU as long as the products from MERCOSUR will be on the European market with lower prices having in view that they don't have to meet the same quality standards as the European ones.
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